Expert Judgement in Cost Estimating: Modelling the Reasoning Process

Expert Judgement in Cost Estimating: Modelling the Reasoning Process

Expert Judgement (EJ) is used extensively during the generation of cost estimates. Cost estimators have to make numerous assumptions and judgements about what they think a new product will cost. However, the use of EJ is often frowned upon, not well accepted or understood by non-cost estimators within a concurrent engineering environment. Computerised cost models, in many ways, have reduced the...

Expert Judgement and Expert Disagreement

As Hammond has argued, traditional explanations for disagreement among experts (incompetence, venality, and ideology) are inadequate. The character and fallibilities of the human judgement process itself lead to persistent disagreements even among competent, honest, and disinterested experts. Social Judgement Theory provides powerful methods for analysing such judgementally based disagreements ...

Expert Judgement Combination using

I enjoyed this paper, though disagreeing with its theory. For years I have tried to understand the Bayesian linear methodology; intrinsically some of the ideas seem so sensible. Ultimately, however, I have failed because for me judgements of uncertainty seem more primitive than judgements of prevision. The approach stemming from Savage (1972), DeGroot (1970) and others seems more natural to me ...

Eliciting expert judgement

Expert judgements are routine in biosecurity risk analysis. This report reviews methods for eliciting probabilities, quantities, and conceptual models. It defines ‘expert’ status, reviews the literature on biases and heuristics in expert judgements and outlines methods for detecting and eliciting values, attitudes and motivations. The report describes direct and indirect techniques for elicitin...

Imitation of Expert Judgement